12 April 2026 Update
We survived the cyclone. It came through as forecast. The eye passed just east of us and we watch the wind quickly clock around from the east to the west as it passed by. The Port of Tauranga next to the marina was an effective wind block for us. We saw a few gusts into the 40 knot range. Once the wind swung to the west we the marina was a bit more exposed and we saw a few gusts up in the 50 knot range.
The boat did fine as did all the other boats in the marina. It was a fine place to ride out the storm.
Tropical Storm Thirtyone became Tropical Cyclone Vaianu this morning. She’ll be arriving here in New Zealand in about five days. Hopefully, by then, she’ll have quieted down to a Tropical Storm again. We’re expecting gale force winds.
This is the first time we’ve used Google’s new DeepMind AI-based weather model. It’s specifically tuned for predicting cyclone tracks. We’ll see how accurate it is with this one.
We are back in Tauranga, finishing up some additional projects. This should be a good place to weather the storm.
Fortunately, she’ll give Fiji a pass. We have quite a few friends who left their boats there for cyclone season. That’s good news for everyone in Fiji.
Once a storm is numbered or named, our insurance policy changes our deductible for any claim related to this weather. Our deductible jumps up to 20% of the claim. It’s part of how these insurance companies cope with big, catastrophic losses that occur when a storm rolls through and piles up all the boats at the back of the harbor.
We are aboard S/V Roam weathering Vaianu even though we are 6,000+ nm from you!
I'll be interested to hear how the DeepMind weather model performs! Fingers are crossed for the storm calming down.